Trump and Xi Strike Energy Deal Amid Warnings of 'Supercharged' El Niño

Energy Talks Signal Shift in US-China Relations

President Trump and President Xi Jinping have agreed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for energy transit, with US officials proposing that China buy more American oil to offset disruptions from the Iran conflict. The two-day Beijing talks, reported by Reuters and the South China Morning Post, mark the first high-level meeting since the Iran war began.

"The discussion included China buying more US energy, and Alaska production is a natural fit," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday. The agreement could reshape global oil markets and ease trade tensions even as climate policies between the two nations diverge sharply.

El Niño Threatens Unprecedented Extremes

Scientists warn there is an 82% chance of a "very strong" El Niño forming in 2026, potentially amplifying climate extremes worldwide. Climate Home News reports that the phenomenon could trigger record wildfires, heatwaves and flooding, with conditions already showing increased fire outbreaks in Africa and Asia.

"The combination of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could push fire seasons into uncharted territory," said Dr. Friederike Otto, co-lead of World Weather Attribution. Data compiled by the group shows more than 150 million hectares were damaged by fires from January to April — 20% more than the previous record.

Background

The Trump-Xi meeting came as the US and China move in radically different directions on climate, despite past cooperation under the Paris Agreement. State-run China Daily called energy security and climate governance "essential" for both powers, while Legal Planet noted the talks had no climate agenda.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that warms the Pacific Ocean, altering weather globally. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole can intensify its effects, raising fire and drought risks. Meanwhile, Ethiopia has seen electric vehicles grow to 8% of its car fleet due to fuel shortages, and the UK halved its contribution to the UN's Green Climate Fund, shifting spending to defense.

What This Means

The energy deal could stabilize oil markets but may undercut global climate goals if it boosts fossil fuel consumption. China's potential purchase of US oil from Alaska would lock in long-term supply, while the Hormuz agreement ensures free flow of energy from a volatile region.

With El Niño poised to supercharge extremes, vulnerable nations face heightened risks of disaster. Experts urge accelerated adaptation investments, but the US-UK aid cuts threaten progress. Ethiopia's EV adoption shows that necessity can drive change, but systemic action remains urgent.

Reporting by Carbon Brief staff. This article is breaking and will be updated as events unfold.